I'm sure everyone has noticed lately that gas prices have been coming down. In my part of the country, we are almost back below $2 per gallon. (I still can't believe we're happy to be paying $2 per gallon). Part of the reason for the decrease in gas prices is the decrease in oil prices. Oil topped out somewhere around $140 per barrel back in July. It is currently trading around $65 per barrel. That's about a 50% decrease in just a few months.

So what about all these people that a few months ago said oil would NEVER come back down below $100? They said that oil prices going up was purely a function of increased demand and stable supply. Well some of us (myself included) disagreed. Check out a few of my previous blog posts:
More Signs Of Oil As The Next Big Market Bubble - June 16, 2008
Are Crude Oil Prices A Bubble Waiting To Burst? - November 7, 2007

My take on the situation was that while there probably was some increase due to demand, the increase in oil prices was disproportionate to the demand increase. This led me to believe that investors were throwing their money into oil to try to make a quick buck. It's one of the things we do best in this country. We see someone else get rich and we copy them so we can also get rich. Eventually TONS of people are involved in the same investment plan. But when we find out that most of the people buying are just get-rich-wannabes, prices collapse. In recent history you could easily refer to the housing market bubble, or the tech industry bubble.

So, I hate to say it, but...

"I told you so"

It's pretty obvious now that a huge portion of this price increase was due to speculative buying by investors. Check out this interview with Scott Bleiler, president of CreateCapital.com. He claims the price increases were solely due to speculative buying. I won't go quite that far. While I do think that maybe 90% of the price increase & decrease was due to speculative buying, I also think prices were also moved a little by changes in demand and the strength of the US dollar. But again, spec buying was the largest part.

Now that I got that out of the way, I can comment on how annoying OPEC is. When prices where out of control this summer, we were practically begging OPEC to increase supply to help lower prices. Their evaluations showed that supply and demand were matched fairly well so they did not increase output. Now that prices have come back to reasonable levels, they decide that they liked it better when they were getting $100+ per barrel so they've decided to decrease output. That is a pretty obvious slap in the face to us. I'm so glad that the recent ncreases in the strength of the dollar helped nullify their supply reductions to meaningless. It literally had no effect on the price of oil. Yet another indication that the price of oil does not move based solely on supply-demand.

That pretty much sums up how I view the whole oil market situation over the past 2 years. Now when will prices of other goods (food, retail, air travel, etc) that went up "due to the increase in fuel costs" go back down? Not any time soon is my guess. Many retailers tried to wait as long as possible to raise prices. This means some may have taken significant losses during those periods. As a result, they will probably be hesitant to reduce prices so they can recover some of those losses. And good luck for airfare. The only way that will come back is if one of the airlines starts a fare war.

To conclude this post, I just want to say that it was a great marketing ploy run by Chrysler this summer. Buy a new car and they would guarantee you $3/gal gas for 3 years. They got a person to buy a car with this deal in mind and now they don't have to pay anything out for it. Great job marketing, Chrysler.


If you want to leave a comment, I'd be interested in hearing what gas prices are doing in your neck of the woods.